GDP: Preliminary Estimate for 2022Q2 and Outlook for 2022-23

  • Post date:2022/8/12
  • Edit date:2022/8/17

Contact Information : Economic Forecast Section, Department of Statistics, Directorate General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics (DGBAS)
Tel : 886-2-2380-3487

August 12, 2022 According to the preliminary estimate, Taiwan’s real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.05% in 2022Q2, compared to the same period of the previous year, and the growth rate of 2022Q1 has been revised to 3.72%. Furthermore, the real GDP is predicted to grow 3.76% and 3.05% in 2022 and 2023, respectively.

Preliminary Estimate of Real GDP in 2022Q2
        The real GDP decreased by 7.01% on a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted annualized basis (saar), or increased by 3.05% on a year-on-year basis (yoy) in 2022Q2, 0.03 percentage point lower than the advance estimate.
        Meanwhile, the economic growth rate of 2022Q1 has been revised to 3.72% (formerly 3.14%).
        On the demand side, despite the Omicron variant cases surging, real private final consumption still grew by 2.89% (yoy) in 2022Q2, primarily due to revival in consumption such as retail, dining out, recreation and transportation, compared to low base of 2021 nationwide epidemic alert period.
        Regarding gross capital formation, investment in machinery equipment and transportation equipment grew significantly. Combining inventory changes, real gross capital formation expanded by 9.42% (yoy).
        In addition, real exports of goods and services grew by 4.32% (yoy), mainly supported by the continuing demand for applications of emerging technologies and digital transformation. Imports increased by 8.83% (yoy).
        On the production side, the manufacturing sector grew by 4.79% in 2022Q2, following the 6.39% increase in the previous quarter, mainly due to the output expansion of semiconductor and computers, electronic & optical products.
        The wholesale and retail trade sector increased by 1.71%, after the expansion of 2.28% in the previous quarter.
        The transportation and storage sector grew by 0.50% in 2022Q2, due to the growing number of passengers taking public transports, such as TRA, THSR and MRT.
        The financial and insurance sector decreased by 1.26% in 2022Q2, following the 2.43% growth in the previous quarter.

Forecast for 2022
        Global economic growth is projected to slowdown, owing to Russia-Ukraine war, lockdowns in mainland China and increasing interest rate hikes worldwide. According to International Monetary Fund (IMF), the world trade volume growth is projected to be 4.1% in 2022. Despite the pressure of inventory correction, the advanced capacity expansion of leading semiconductor manufacturers promptly meets the emerging demand for new technological applications and enterprise digitalization, and demand for infrastructure investments from other countries all will support Taiwan’s export. In aggregate with services exports, real exports of goods and services will grow by 5.84% in 2022.
        In spite of the weak consumption caused by the pandemic in the first half of 2022, the eased COVID-19 control restrictions and domestic travel subsidy program revive domestic travel tourism gradually. Real private consumption will grow by 3.03%, mainly owing to wage and dividend raise supported by the robust corporation profitability, the increased minimum wage and civil servant’s salary, with the effect of low base.
        Real private fixed capital formation will grow by 6.55%. In addition to the continuing investment of semiconductor industry and the reshoring Taiwan’s overseas companies, it is also driven by the sustaining investment in green energy and its supportive industries’ capacity and equipments.
        Combining the above components as well as the public sector, Taiwan’s real GDP is projected to grow by 3.76% in 2022, downward revised by 0.15 percentage point from the previous forecast.
        Consumer price Index (CPI) will increase 2.92%, upward revised by 0.25 percentage point, mainly reflecting the cost due to higher import prices, and significant prices hike in food away from home and residential rent.

Outlook for 2023
        The domestic capacity expansion of the advanced capacity of leading semiconductor manufacturers and sustaining investment in offshore wind energy will support Taiwan’s export and investment growth. However, the momentum of global demand is crumbling, indicated by the world trade volume grown projected to the weaker 3.2% in 2023, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF). Combining the contribution from domestic sector, with the recovering consumption driven by expected cross-border tourism, real GDP will grow by 3.05% in 2023. CPI will rise by 1.72%.

Full text and tables (PDF)
Errata:
2022Q4 & 2023Q1-Q4 CPI in "Table 2 Changes in Prices" corrected on August 17(does not affect CPI annual and other data)

【Attachment】

  • Table 1-1 Gross Domestic Product and Economic Growth Rate (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 1-2 GDP、GNI and NI (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   2  Changes in Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-1 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-2 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Composition at Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-3 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Growth Rates In Chained Volume Indexes(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-4 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Contributions to Economic Growth Rate(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-1 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-2 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Composition at Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-3 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Growth Rates In Chained Volume Indexes(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-4 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Contributions to Economic Growth Rate (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   5  Gross National Savings and Gross Domestic Investment (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   6  Exports and Imports (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 7-1 Expenditures on GDP, Seasonally Adjusted : Chained dollars (Reference year = 2016) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 7-2 Expenditures on GDP, Seasonally Adjusted : Growth Rates (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   8  Indicators for Private Final Consumption Expenditure (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   9  Indicators for Private Gross Fixed Capital Formation (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  10  Economic Growth Rates of Major Countries (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  11  The Changes of Consumer Price Indices for Major Countries (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  12  Summary of Earning and Productivity Statistics in Taiwan Area (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  13  Major Figures of Family Income and Expenditure (1/2) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  13  Major Figures of Family Income and Expenditure (2/2) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  14  The Change of Disposable Income per Household Occurred by Current Transfers between Households and Government (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  15  Household Income Distribution of Major Countries(Area) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  16  Household Facilities and Housing in Taiwan Area (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  17  Government Social Transfers In Kind Effect on Income Distribution, by Income Quintile (EXCEL) (ODF)