GDP: Preliminary Estimate for 2022Q1, and Outlook for 2022

  • Post date:2022/5/27
  • Edit date:2022/5/27

Contact Information : Economic Forecast Section, Department of Statistics, Directorate General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics (DGBAS)
Tel : 886-2-2380-3487

May 27, 2022 Taiwan’s real gross domestic product (GDP) have been revised to 5.32% and 6.57% for the fourth quarter and whole year of 2021. For the first quarter of 2022, the real GDP grew by 3.14%, according to the latest preliminary estimate. Besides, the real GDP is predicted to grow by 3.91% in 2022.

Preliminary Estimate of Real GDP in 2022Q1

        The real GDP increased by 4.30% on a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted annualized basis (saar), or by 3.14% on a year-on-year basis (yoy) in 2022Q1, 0.08 percentage point higher than the advance estimate.
        Meanwhile, the economic growth rates have been revised to 5.32% and 6.57% for the 2021Q4 and the whole year of 2021, respectively (formerly 4.86% and 6.45%).
        On the demand side, real private final consumption grew by 0.46% in 2022Q1, primarily due to weakness in service consumption such as transportation and recreation.
        Regarding gross capital formation, investment in machinery equipment, transportation equipment and construction grew sustainably and steadily. Combining inventory changes, real gross capital formation expanded by 5.88%.
        In addition, real exports of goods and services grew by 8.95%, mainly supported by the increasing foreign demand for applications of emerging technologies, as well as flourishing shipment services accompanied by international trade. Imports also increased by 8.35%.
        On the production side, the manufacturing sector grew by 6.30% in 2022Q1, following the 10.64% increase in the previous quarter, mainly due to the output expansion of semiconductor, machinery & equipment, and computers, electronic & optical products.
        The wholesale & retail trade sector increased by 1.48%, after the expansion of 1.86% in the previous quarter.
        Although there was a sharp decline of passenger transportation caused by COVID-19, however, the freight transportation increased with the growth of manufacturing, the transportation and storage sector decline by 3.18% in 2022Q1.
        The financial & insurance sector grew by 2.50% in 2022Q1, following the 8.90% growth in the previous quarter.

Outlook for 2022

        Global economic growth is projected to slowdown, owing to Russia-Ukraine war, interest rate hikes and lockdowns in mainland China. According to International Monetary Fund (IMF), the world trade volume growth is projected to be 5.0% in 2022, slowing from 10.1% in 2021. The domestic advanced technology capacity expansion of leading semiconductor manufacturers responding to strong chips demand derived from new technological applications and enterprise digitalization, and demand of infrastructure investments and inventory stockpiling will support Taiwan’s export. In aggregate with services exports, real exports of goods and services will grow by 5.85% in 2022.
        Despite the recent surge in Omicron variant cases causing social distancing, weakened stock market trading and dropped auto sales caused by supply-chain disruption, real private consumption will grow by 3.10%, mainly driven by wage and income raise likely supported by the robust corporation profitability, salary lifting measures, and the effect of low base.
        Real private fixed capital formation will grow by 4.64%. In addition to the continuing investment of semiconductor industry and the reshoring Taiwan’s overseas companies, it is also driven by the sustaining investment in offshore wind energy and its supportive businesses.
        Combining the above components as well as the public sector, Taiwan’s real GDP is projected to grow by 3.91% in 2022, downward revised by 0.51 percentage point from the previous forecast.
        Consumer price Index (CPI) will increase 2.67%, upward revised by 0.74 percentage point, mainly reflecting producers passing import cost on to retail prices.

Full text and tables (PDF)

【Attachment】

  • Table 1-1 Gross Domestic Product and Economic Growth Rate (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 1-2 GDP、GNI and NI (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   2  Changes in Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-1 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-2 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Composition at Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-3 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Growth Rates In Chained Volume Indexes(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-4 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Contributions to Economic Growth Rate(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-1 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-2 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Composition at Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-3 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Growth Rates In Chained Volume Indexes(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-4 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Contributions to Economic Growth Rate (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   5  Gross National Savings and Gross Domestic Investment (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   6  Exports and Imports (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 7-1 Expenditures on GDP, Seasonally Adjusted : Chained dollars (Reference year = 2016) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 7-2 Expenditures on GDP, Seasonally Adjusted : Growth Rates (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   8   Indicators for Private Final Consumption Expenditure (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   9   Indicators for Private Gross Fixed Capital Formation (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  10  Economic Growth Rates of Major Countries (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  11  The Changes of Consumer Price Indices for Major Countries (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  12  Summary of Earning and Productivity Statistics in Taiwan Area (EXCEL) (ODF)