GDP: Preliminary Estimate for 2021Q4, and Outlook for 2022

  • Post date:2022/2/24
  • Edit date:2022/2/24

Contact Information : Economic Forecast Section, Department of Statistics, Directorate General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics (DGBAS)
Tel : 886-2-2380-3487

February 24, 2022 Taiwan’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 4.86% from the same quarter of the previous year in 2021Q4, according to the latest preliminary estimate. For the whole 2021, the economic growth rate was 6.45%. Meanwhile, the real GDP is projected to grow by 4.42% in 2022.

Preliminary Estimate of Real GDP in 2021Q4 and 2021

        The real GDP increased by 7.63% on a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted annualized basis (saar), or by 4.86% on a year-on-year basis (yoy) in 2021Q4, 0.02 percentage point lower than the advance estimate.
        Meanwhile, the economic growth rate of 2021Q3 has been revised to 4.37% (formerly 3.70%). For the whole 2021, real GDP grew by 6.45%.
        On the demand side, real private final consumption grew by 1.57% in 2021Q4, an upturn from the 5.25% decline in the previous quarter, mainly reflecting the restoration of retail sales and food services due to restrictions easing and government stimulus packages.
        Regarding gross capital formation, investment in machinery equipment, transportation equipment and construction grew significantly. Combining inventory changes, real gross capital formation expanded by 14.71%.
        In addition, real exports of goods and services grew by 11.68%, mainly driven by the strong foreign demand for manufacturing products, as well as thriving shipment services accompanied by international trade. Imports also increased by 15.51%.
        On the production side, the manufacturing sector grew by 10.23% in 2021Q4, following the 13.07% increase in the previous quarter, mainly due to the output expansion of semiconductor and machinery & equipment.
        The wholesale & retail trade sector increased by 1.86%, after the contraction of 2.79% in the previous quarter.
        Financial & insurance sector grew by 7.32% in 2021Q4, following the 9.67% growth in the previous quarter.
        The transportation and storage sector decreased by 1.46%, following the 13.25% decline in the previous quarter.

Forecast for 2022

        Despite the uncertainty remains, the COVID-19 impact on global economy is milder. The world trade volume is projected to continue growing by 6.0% in 2022, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF). The domestic capacity expansion of semiconductor manufacturers and reshoring oversea companies concurrently response to emerging demand for new technological applications, such as 5G-related and high performance computing (HPC) applications, and global demand both will support Taiwan’s export. As the border control easing gradually, the inbound visitors and the travel revenue is expected to gradually pick-up. In aggregate with services exports, real exports of goods and services will grow by 5.53% in 2022.
        Real private consumption will grow by 5.10%, mainly driven by wage and income raise likely supported by the robust corporation profitability, salary lifting measures, and the effect of low base. Although some local cases of Omicron variant emerge recently, the impact on consumer spending is limited.
        Real private fixed capital formation will grow by 5.65%. In addition to the continuing investment of semiconductor industry and the reshoring Taiwan’s overseas companies, it is also driven by the sustaining investment in offshore wind energy, and transportation companies expanding fleet capacity.
        Combining the above components as well as the public sector, Taiwan’s real GDP is projected to grow by 4.42% in 2022, upward revised by 0.27 percentage point from the previous forecast.
        Consumer price Index (CPI) will increase 1.93%, upward revised by 0.32 percentage point, mainly reflecting the raising crude oil, raw material and food prices.

Full text and tables (PDF)

【Attachment】

  • Table 1-1 Gross Domestic Product and Economic Growth Rate (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 1-2 GDP、GNI and NI (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   2  Changes in Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-1 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-2 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Composition at Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-3 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Growth Rates In Chained Volume Indexes(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-4 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Contributions to Economic Growth Rate(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-1 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-2 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Composition at Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-3 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Growth Rates In Chained Volume Indexes(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-4 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Contributions to Economic Growth Rate (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   5  Gross National Savings and Gross Domestic Investment (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   6  Exports and Imports (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 7-1 Expenditures on GDP, Seasonally Adjusted : Chained dollars (Reference year = 2016) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 7-2 Expenditures on GDP, Seasonally Adjusted : Growth Rates (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   8   Indicators for Private Final Consumption Expenditure (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   9   Indicators for Private Gross Fixed Capital Formation (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  10  Economic Growth Rates of Major Countries (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  11  The Changes of Consumer Price Indices for Major Countries (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  12  Summary of Earning and Productivity Statistics in Taiwan Area (EXCEL) (ODF)