Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, R.O.C.

May 26, 2023　For the first quarter of 2023, Taiwan’s real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 2.87% from the same period of previous year, according to the latest preliminary estimate. The real GDP is predicted to grow by 2.04% in 2023. Meanwhile, GDP growth rate have been revised to -0.78% and 2.35% for the fourth quarter and whole year of 2022.

Preliminary Estimate of Real GDP in 2023Q1

        The real GDP contracted by 2.36% on a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted annualized basis (saar) and 2.87% on a year-on-year basis (yoy, all growth rates hereafter are on the same basis) in 2023Q1, 0.15 percentage point higher than the advance estimate.

        Meanwhile, the economic growth rates have been revised to -0.78% and 2.35% for the 2022Q4 and the whole year of 2022, respectively (formerly -0.41% and 2.45%).

        On the demand side, real private final consumption grew by 6.48% in 2023Q1, mainly driven by strong rebound in spending on dining out, accommodation, recreation, transportation and vehicles, as well as the flourishing outbound tourism owing to the reopening of borders, but partly offset by the decrease in financial services.

        Regarding gross capital formation, investment in machinery equipment and intellectual property products grew continuously. However, investment in construction and transportation equipment reduced. Combining the reduction of inventory, real gross capital formation declined by 3.24%.

        In addition, real exports of goods and services dropped by 10.80%, mainly caused by the weak global demand and inventory adjustments. Imports also fell by 4.01%.

        On the production side, the manufacturing sector decreased by 12.05% in 2023Q1, lower than the -4.93% in the previous quarter, mainly due to the weak market demand for semiconductor, chemical material, basic metal, fabricated metal products, and machinery & equipment.

        The wholesale and retail trade sector decreased by 7.45%, after the contraction of 3.39% in the previous quarter.

        The transportation and storage sector grew by 25.27% in 2023Q1, due to the growing number of passengers taking land and air transport.

        The financial and insurance sector decreased by 4.33% in 2023Q1, following the 8.84% decline in the previous quarter.

Outlook for 2023

        Global economic growth is projected to slow down due to the demand crunch caused by the inflation, interest-rate hikes and the ongoing Russia’s war in Ukraine. Besides, with the end of pandemic, the consumer spending has shifted from goods to services, and the adjustment period of commodity inventories is prolonged. According to International Monetary Fund (IMF), the crumbled momentum of global demand is indicated by the world trade volume projected to grow by 2.4% in 2023, lower than 5.1% in 2022. However, the increase of surged inbound tourists would spur travel revenue. In aggregate with services exports, real exports of goods and services will shrink by 0.60% in 2023.

        Real private consumption will grow by 6.92%.The consumption returns to normality after the pandemic along with strong gains in shopping, travel, and food services. The growth also benefits from the flourishing out-bound tourism owing to the reopening of borders, the stabilizing labor market and the government's universal cash remittance launched since this April.

        The continuing investment of semiconductor industry, overseas companies’ reshoring, sustaining investment in offshore wind energy and airline companies expanding aircraft fleets to cope with the increase in overseas travel, all will support investment. However, enterprises’ capital spendings may be cautious due to the uncertainty toward global outlook and the effect of previous year’s high base. Real private fixed capital formation will decrease by 2.49%.

        Combining the above components as well as the public sector, Taiwan’s real GDP is projected to grow by 2.04% in 2023, revised downward by 0.08 percentage point from the previous forecast.

        Consumer price Index (CPI) will increase 2.26%, revised upward by 0.10 percentage point, mainly reflecting the raising in housing rental and the service price such as entertainment expenses due to the increase in demand.

Full text and tables (PDF)

【Attachment】

• Table 1-1 Gross Domestic Product and Economic Growth Rate (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 1-2 GDP、GNI and NI (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   2  Changes in Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 3-1 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 3-2 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Composition at Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 3-3 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Growth Rates In Chained Volume Indexes(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 3-4 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Contributions to Economic Growth Rate(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 4-1 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 4-2 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Composition at Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 4-3 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Growth Rates In Chained Volume Indexes(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 4-4 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Contributions to Economic Growth Rate (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   5  Gross National Savings and Gross Domestic Investment (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   6  Exports and Imports (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 7-1 Expenditures on GDP, Seasonally Adjusted : Chained dollars (Reference year = 2016) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 7-2 Expenditures on GDP, Seasonally Adjusted : Growth Rates (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   8   Indicators for Private Final Consumption Expenditure (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   9   Indicators for Private Gross Fixed Capital Formation (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  10  Economic Growth Rates of Major Countries (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  11  Percent Changes in CPI and Food Index of Major Countries & Regions (EXCEL) (ODF)