GDP: Preliminary Estimate for 2017Q1 and Outlook for 2017

  • Post date:2017/5/26
  • Edit date:2017/5/26

Contact Information : Economic Forecast Section, Department of Statistics, Directorate General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics (DGBAS)
Tel : 886-2-2380-3487

May 26, 2017 Taiwan's economic growth rates in the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2016 were revised to 2.79%(yoy) and 1.48%, respectively. For 2017, the latest preliminary estimate of real GDP grew by 2.60% corresponding to the previous year in Q1. In 2017, it is expected to grow by 2.05%.

Preliminary Estimate of Real GDP in 2017Q1

        The real GDP increased by 3.82% on a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted annualized basis(saar), and grew by 2.60% on a year-on-year basis(yoy) in 2017Q1, 0.04 percentage point higher than the advance estimate.
        Meanwhile, the economic growth rates have been revised to 2.79% and 1.48% for the fourth quarter and whole year of 2016(formerly 2.88% and 1.50%).
        On the demand side, real private final consumption grew by 1.95%(yoy) in 2017Q1, mainly reflecting the increase of consumption on transport, communication and miscellaneous-goods-and-services.
        Real gross capital formation expanded by 7.68%(yoy), following the 6.73% growth in the previous quarter, mainly due to an increase in machinery and equipment investment.
        Meanwhile, real exports of goods and services grew by 7.36%(yoy), which was mainly driven by the foreign demand for parts of electronic products. Imports also increased by 7.67%(yoy).
        On the production side, the manufacturing sector grew by 6.70%(yoy) in 2017Q1, following the 6.15% growth in the previous quarter, mainly due to the output expansion of semiconductor and machinery-and -equipment.
        The wholesale & retail trade sector and the finance & insurance sector increased by 3.58% (yoy) and 3.71% respectively, faster than the 3.36% and 0.65% growth in the previous quarter.

Outlook for 2017

        The outlooks of global economy and world trade are both improving. Moreover, the competitive advantages of Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing and the increasing demand of new technological applications, such as IOT, automotive electronics, and artificial intelligence are expected to support the expansion of Taiwan's goods exports. It’s projected that the real exports of goods and services will grow by 3.95%.
        Real private fixed capital formation is expected to grow by 1.95%, supported by the continuing investment of semiconductor manufacturing, government’s encouragement policies on business investments and innovations, and the improvement of sluggish housing market.
        Real private consumption is expected to grow by 1.84%, supported by the accelerated economic growth, and improving stock market and labor market, but dampened by the slow real wage growth.
        For 2017, the economic growth forecast, 2.05%, is 0.13 percentage point higher than the previous forecast announced in Feb. And CPI for 2017 is expected to increase 0.95%, lower by 0.13 percentage point than the expectation in Feb, mainly reflecting the falling food prices.

Full text and tables (PDF)

【Attachment】

  • Table 1-1 Gross Domestic Product and Economic Growth Rate (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 1-2 GDP、GNI and NI (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   2  Changes in Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-1 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-2 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Composition at Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-3 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Growth Rates In Chained Volume Indexes(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-4 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Contributions to Economic Growth Rate(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-1 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-2 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Composition at Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-3 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Growth Rates In Chained Volume Indexes(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-4 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Contributions to Economic Growth Rate (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   5  Gross National Savings and Gross Domestic Investment (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   6  Exports and Imports (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 7-1 Expenditures on GDP, Seasonally Adjusted : Chained dollars (Reference year = 2011) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 7-2 Expenditures on GDP, Seasonally Adjusted : Growth Rates (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   8  Indicators for Private Final Consumption Expenditure (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   9  Indicators for Private Gross Fixed Capital Formation (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  10  Economic Growth Rates of Major Countries (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  11  The Changes of Consumer Price Indices for Major Countries (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  12  Summary of Earning and Productivity Statistics in Taiwan Area (EXCEL) (ODF)