Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, R.O.C.

February 29, 2024　In 2023Q4, Taiwan’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 4.93% from the same quarter of the previous year according to the latest preliminary estimate. For the whole 2023, the economic growth rate was 1.31%. Meanwhile, the real GDP is projected to grow by 3.43% in 2024.

Preliminary Estimate of Real GDP in 2023Q4 and 2023

        The real GDP increased by 9.70% on a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted annualized basis (saar) and 4.93% on a year-on-year basis (yoy, all growth rates hereafter are on the same basis) in 2023Q4, 0.19 percentage point lower than the advance estimate.

        Meanwhile, the economic growth rate of 2023Q3 has been revised to 2.15% (formerly 2.32%). For the whole 2023, real GDP grew by 1.31%.

        On the demand side, real private final consumption expanded by 5.07% in 2023Q4, mainly driven by expenditures on services such as transportation, travel, recreation, as well as consumption on vehicles and the flourishing outbound tourism.

        Due to the increase in exports of emerging application goods and travel service, real exports of goods and services grew by 3.72%. Imports fell by 4.48%.

        Regarding gross capital formation, investment in transportation equipment grew significantly. However, investment in machinery equipment reduced. Combining inventory changes, real gross capital formation declined by 9.06%.

        On the production side, the manufacturing sector decreased by 0.03% in 2023Q4, following the 4.61% decrease in the previous quarter, mainly due to the weak market demand for semiconductor, fabricated metal products, and machinery & equipment.

        The wholesale and retail trade sector increased by 3.86%, after the expansion of 0.73% in the previous quarter.

        The transportation and storage sector grew by 21.19% in 2023Q4, due to the growing number of passengers taking land and air transport.

        The financial and insurance sector increased by 11.96% in 2023Q4, following the 4.65% growth in the previous quarter.

Outlook for 2024

        Global economy is expected to grow at a moderate pace, overcoming the impact of reduced demand due to high policy rates and inventory adjustments. According to International Monetary Fund (IMF), the world trade volume growth is projected to accelerate from 0.4% in 2023 to 3.3% this year. Additionally, the increasing demand for new technological applications, such as AI applications, high performance computing (HPC) and automotive electronics will support Taiwan’s export. In aggregate with services exports, real exports of goods and services will grow by 5.90% in 2024.

        Real private consumption will grow by 2.64%, mainly driven by the improving labor market and the wealth effect stemming from the rising stock market. The growth also benefits from the recovering out-bound tourism, approaching pre-pandemic levels.

        Real private fixed capital formation is anticipated to increase by 1.45%, supported by ongoing investments in R&D and production process improvement to cope with digital transformation and net-zero emissions. Moreover, airline's fleets expansion to meet the increasing demand for overseas travel and freight, along with sustained investments in solar and offshore wind energy, will further contribute to Taiwan’s investment growth.

        Combining the above components as well as the public sector, Taiwan’s real GDP is projected to grow by 3.43% in 2024, revised upward by 0.08 percentage point from the previous forecast.

        Consumer price Index (CPI) will increase 1.85%, revised upward by 0.21 percentage point, mainly reflecting the lasting price rises in food away from home and residential rent.

Full text and tables (PDF)

【Attachment】

• Table 1-1 Gross Domestic Product and Economic Growth Rate (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 1-2 GDP、GNI and NI (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   2  Changes in Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 3-1 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 3-2 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Composition at Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 3-3 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Growth Rates In Chained Volume Indexes(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 3-4 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Contributions to Economic Growth Rate(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 4-1 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 4-2 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Composition at Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 4-3 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Growth Rates In Chained Volume Indexes(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 4-4 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Contributions to Economic Growth Rate (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   5  Gross National Savings and Gross Domestic Investment (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   6  Exports and Imports (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 7-1 Expenditures on GDP, Seasonally Adjusted : Chained dollars (Reference year = 2016) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 7-2 Expenditures on GDP, Seasonally Adjusted : Growth Rates (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   8   Indicators for Private Final Consumption Expenditure (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   9   Indicators for Private Gross Fixed Capital Formation (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  10  Economic Growth Rates of Major Countries (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  11  Percent Changes in CPI and Food Index of Major Countries & Regions (EXCEL) (ODF)